NYC Restaurant Outdoor Dining Tracker
A data and spatial analysis on NYC Restaurant Reopening Applications
The reopening of the restaurant industry is crucial, but with hidden dangers.
The restaurant industry has long been one of the reasons why New York City remains a world-class metropolis. It is the second-largest in tourism spending, coming second only to lodging. It accounted for about 1 in 12 private-sector jobs citywide in 2019, according to a report by the Office of the New York State Comptroller. It also has been a great income resource for 60 percent of NYC’s immigrant residents, compared to 45 percent among other industries.
Since the restaurant industry is often a byproduct rather than a cause of a healthy New York economy, it has been hit hard by the ongoing lockdowns during the pandemic. Now, with the resurgence of COVID cases in the city and the upcoming harsh winter, many are left wondering whether the restaurant industry will survive if it takes another hard economic hit. A Bloomberg analysis shows that
Restaurant revenues in New York are down 89% from where they stood in April 2019.
The major question this analysis is trying to answer is:
How have the restaurant industry’s outdoor dining options been doing more than eight months into the COVID-19 pandemic?
Measuring restaurant performance, the analysis wants to answer two major questions:
How have reopened restaurants been doing:
- What is the trend in how reopening procedures have been applied in restaurants across the city?
- Where are these restaurants located?
- Which seating types did restaurants apply for?
- What is the size of the outdoor seating areas?
Where are the reopened outdoor areas within COVID zones?
- Is there any area within the red-cluster zones which only allow takeout or delivery?
- Is there any area within the orange-cluster zones which prohibit indoor dining?
- Is there any area within the yellow-cluster zones which prohibit indoor dining?
- What are the seating types within the most colored clustered zones?
According to Gov. Cuomo, the “Cluster Action Initiative” are new protocols to tackle a high density of cases in one area. A cluster will be identified by state officials based on case numbers in an area not zip codes or a census tract.
To answer these questions, the analysis built up data analysis scripts in R to closely monitor the Open Dining Restaurants Application dataset provided by the DoT ( Department of Transportation) via its API, and COVID micro-cluster zones provided by the NYC Health Department.
Caveats: There is no existing tracker or dataset that renders an overall picture of all NYC restaurant responses and procedures during the pandemic. This restaurant outdoor dining tracker only covers restaurants that applied for establishing outdoor dining areas in public spaces, excluding those that already had outdoor spaces pre-pandemic.
The analysis first looked at the submission date of applications.
Data shows that the city witnessed a great surge of applications (for outdoor dining) right after the Outdoor Dining Program was first introduced on June 19, 2020. According to an analysis of the official documents from the Office of NYS Comptroller, the program has received 11514 applications as of December 5, just about half of what the industry had reached (23,650 establishments) in all of 2019. The number is still growing slowly, demonstrating a long tail when the city enters the snowy and windy season.
In the last seven months, most of the reopening applications were filed by restaurants in Manhattan, followed by Brooklyn’s and Queens’.
Here is a quick glimpse of the approved restaurants on the map. It shows that outdoor seating applications are coming from Midtown Manhattan, Lower Manhattan, and Williamsburg.
However, for some restaurants, outdoor seating is not an option at all.
For example, Dunhuang, a New York Times featured northeastern Chinese restaurant, only provided its customers takeout services before September 30, which was when the city began allowing indoor dining at 25% capacity. The manager of Dunhuang (Grand Central site) told the researcher that they don’t think it’s worthwhile to set up tables outside, because of the narrow sidewalk and bus lane right in front of the restaurant.
In all five boroughs, more than half of the reopening applications requested for both sidewalk and roadway seatings, while only around 360 restaurants can operate their outdoor businesses in open streets, according to the data analysis.
In a New York Times article, Polly Trottenberg, the city transportation commissioner, described that the outdoor dining program “has developed into one of the few bright spots in the pandemic.”
He also called it “a creative new vision of public space”.
Sidewalk seating is more welcomed by restauranteurs when compared with roadway seating. In total, 56 percent of the outdoor dining spaces are on sidewalks, while only 42 percent of them are on roadways. While the sidewalk has fewer operating spaces for restaurants to set up their tables and outdoor decors, it is still taking 9834 sq feet compared with 7328 sq feet areas taken by roadways.
Located in Midtown Manhatten, Cafe China is one of the dining spots that applied for both sidewalk and roadway dining types. It sets up separate spaces for different groups of diners, and it also provides heaters for its outdoor dining customers.
Regarding the public areas which it takes up, Cafe China is maximizing all of the outdoor spaces that it can offer. According to the outdoor dining application’s outdoor size and area records, it takes up 4 ft of the sidewalk in width, leaving 7.7 ft for the pedestrians, though the official guide requires at least an 8 ft wide space for walkers.
While mandating public schools to close before November 19, Governor Cuomo still announced that indoor dining in New York City would be allowed to resume, beginning with a 25 percent occupancy limit. According to the Eater, experts showed concerns about indoor dining, saying that it is more likely to spread the virus compared with keeping schools open.
But there are no simple trade-offs. The restaurants’ reopening adds revenue but also potential difficulties to the containment of the virus. Even with certain regulations implemented, such as “keeping the tables six-feet apart” and “leaving the sidewalk a minimum of the eight-feet clear path”, it is still uncertain for the New Yorkers to draw a safe conclusion that outdoor dining experience has zero possibility of virus infection, let alone the exposures during commutes.
Starting from the mid Novermber, the resurgence of local cases results in the emergence of local hotspots. The Office of the Governor has been researching on designing “Red”, “Orange”, and “Yellow” micro-cluster zones for monitoring and adjusting the economic closures and reopenings. As of December 5, there is one orange micro-cluster as well as six yellow ones. Fortunately, no area is defined as a “red zone” for now.
Mapping reopening restaurants onto the zones, Staten Island — where the only orange zone located — is having fewer outdoor reopenings compared with other boroughs. Astoria and Elmhurst, two neighborhoods in Queens which are within potentially “dangerous” yellow zones, are having outdoor dining sites densely populated. In comparison, Lower Manhattan, Midtown Manhattan, and Williamsburg are not within potentially dangerous zones for now.
Let’s zoom into Staten Island, which is fully covered by the colored zones.
Per the dining restrictions of zone clustering, red zones only allow takeout or delivery; orange zones allow outdoor dining, takeout or delivery only, 4 person maximum per table, and bars and restaurants close at 10:00 PM for on-premises consumption; yellow zones permit indoor and outdoor dining, 4 person maximum per table, and bars and restaurants close at 10:00 PM for on-premises consumption.
The above analysis shows little correlation between COVID case rates and the reopening of restaurants, as well as outdoor dining options. It might be due to the fact that New Yorkers are commuting for a dining experience, and they are not living nearby the restaurants within potentially dangerous zones. However, the analysis is meant for and intended to benefit diners and restaurateurs, to ensure they are well-prepared for the next stage.
Key Takeaways:
- The city witnessed a great surge of applications right after the Outdoor Dining Program was first introduced on June 19, 2020, and it demonstrates a long tail when the snowy and windy season comes.
- Restaurants in Manhattan, followed by Brooklyn and Queen’, filed most of the reopening applications. Most outdoor seating applications are coming from Midtown Manhattan, Lower Manhattan, and Williamsburg.
- In all five boroughs, more than half of the reopening applications requested for both sidewalk and roadway seatings. Sidewalk seating is more welcomed by restauranteurs compared with the roadway seating.
- State Island, where the only orange zone located, is having fewer outdoor reopenings compared with the other boroughs.
- Astoria and Elmhurst, two neighborhoods in Queens which are within potentially “dangerous” yellow zones, are having outdoor dining sites densely populated. In comparison, Lower Manhattan, Midtown Manhattan, and Williamsburg are not within potentially dangerous zones for now.
Note:
- Open Restaurant Applications is a dataset of applications from food service establishments seeking authorization to re-open under Phase Two of the State’s New York Forward Plan, and place outdoor seating in front of their business on the sidewalk and/or roadway. Restaurants already privately owned outdoor space, parking lots, balconies, terraces, open air rooftops space, or open air boats are not required to apply for approvals of outdoor dining.
- Data updated on December 5, 2020; Data source: NYC Open Data( Open Restaurant Applications),New York City’s Sidewalk dataset, NYC Street Map; Code in R Studio; Spatial analysis steps in google doc.
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